Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript under has been frivolously edited.

maya (Maya Sweedler, senior editor): The primary Republican debate final Wednesday featured eight candidates — none of whom was the front-runner. Former President Donald Trump elected to skip the controversy, writing on his social media web site that “The general public is aware of who I’m & what a profitable Presidency I had.”

In his absence, the opposite candidates … effectively, what did the opposite candidates do, and was it efficient? A few of FiveThirtyEight’s crack crew is right here to debate Trump’s determination, whether or not it was the precise name for him and if he can be served effectively by making an analogous one for the September debate.

Let’s begin with what occurred final week. How did Trump’s absence manifest within the debate?

nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst): It didn’t!

The candidates typically avoided mentioning or attacking Trump in any respect, with a few notable exceptions from anti-Trump candidates like former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. However they attacked him for his indictments and disrespect for the Structure, not for skipping the controversy. 

Monica Potts (Monica Potts, senior politics reporter): I used to be actually shocked at how little he got here up. The primary query was whether or not all of the candidates on stage would help the eventual nominee, with the baked-in assumption that it is likely to be Trump regardless of his indictments, and Hutchinson and Christie didn’t say they’d. They’ve been essential of the previous president all through their campaigns, so this wasn’t shocking. It additionally elicited boos from the viewers.

So in some ways Trump was there with out being there.

meredithconroy (Meredith Conroy, political science professor at California State College, San Bernardino, and FiveThirtyEight contributor): Nicely, if the query is how did the opposite candidates discuss his absence, you might be each proper. They didn’t. However his absence was nonetheless felt and noticeable. And we all know it compelled the opposite candidates to rethink their methods. From among the reporting (and their campaigning to this point, too), it regarded just like the non-Trump candidates have been going to assault one another or President Biden, however not Trump. I feel that we noticed extra direct criticism of Trump with out him on stage from former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence and Christie. Additionally, I feel the “vibe” was totally different. I can’t return in time, put him on stage, and see what the vibes can be like with him there, however there was extra air for Republicans to debate their points, and I feel they did so cogently — with some exceptions, after all.

maya: If you happen to have been Trump watching Fox on Aug. 23, how would you are feeling about your odds? Higher or worse, having watched your challengers on the stage?

meredithconroy: If I’m Trump (or his marketing campaign), I do suppose I’d’ve suggested towards going to the primary debate. Trump had nothing to instantly achieve from collaborating. However by sitting out, it opened the door for the opposite candidates to take up extra space and assault him with out rebuttal (though entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy appeared desperate to play the position of Trump defender). However I’d be taking a look at it and suppose I’m just a little worse off after the controversy. Not solely as a result of polls just like the one FiveThirtyEight did with Ipsos, performed utilizing Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, reveals this (the share of debate watchers contemplating him declined by about 5 proportion factors), but additionally as a result of different candidates are within the information cycle and gaining identify recognition and credibility.

nrakich: Proper. In response to our FiveThirtyEight/Washington Submit/Ipsos ballot, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy all turned in robust performances within the eyes of Republican major voters who tuned in. 

That stated, if I have been Trump, I’d already be extraordinarily assured in my probabilities. He’s main by 35 proportion factors in our nationwide polling common, for crying out loud. One debate isn’t going to vary that, regardless of how effectively Haley or DeSantis did. 

Monica Potts: Proper, Nathaniel. Additionally, Trump has at all times adopted a unique playbook than most candidates. We will’t overlook his counter-programming with the Tucker Carlson interview. Moreover, a Morning Seek the advice of ballot launched Tuesday confirmed that potential Republican major voters discovered him extra electable after the controversy. Sixty-two p.c stated he had the perfect probability of beating Biden, up 9 factors from the week earlier than.

nrakich: That stated, our ballot with The Washington Submit and Ipsos discovered that solely 7 p.c of major voters who skipped the controversy watched that Carlson interview. 

meredithconroy: And those who skipped the controversy for the Trump interview have been his most fervent supporters. However I’m glad you introduced up his interview with Carlson, Monica. Since you’re proper, it’s not as if he’s simply sitting round watching this race occur. He does have his personal playbook, and his supporters are nonetheless getting their fill. 

nrakich: Trump isn’t sitting round watching the race occur; he is the race.

meredithconroy: Sure! I don’t disagree with that. I simply do suppose he might journey and fall (or is he the world on this metaphor?), given how polarizing he’s, even inside his personal social gathering. That he has viable challengers in any respect is vital!

… One thousand political scientists now dangle their heads in disgrace at my evaluation. ÐВЃЯШÐВ’

maya: Why, Meredith?

meredithconroy: Simply primarily based on the state of issues that political scientists examine, and say matter — his huge lead within the polls, the shift of the GOP base to the social gathering of Trump (even with out Trump), the endorsements he’s acquired, his marketing campaign money … all of it factors to a Trump nomination.

Oh, and the truth that political science scholarship finds debates to hardly matter. ÐВЃЯШÐВ•

nrakich: Simply ask Rick Perry what he thinks of that. ÐВЃЯШЫ

meredithconroy: Oops. 

maya: Provided that, is there any draw back to blowing off the September debate as effectively?

And what’s the utility of a nationwide platform like a debate stage on this occasion? The Fox debate did get almost 13 million viewers, in line with the community. 

Monica Potts: I don’t suppose there’s any draw back to him skipping. It is going to let his opponents seize some headlines, doubtlessly. However along with his indictments and responses to them, he stays within the information and within the highlight. His give up to Georgia authorities was handled nearly like a marketing campaign cease. These issues will solely strengthen his help among the many die-hard Trump followers. The unknown is what extra persuadable voters will suppose, however that looks as if extra of a query for the final than for the first. 

nrakich: If I have been advising Trump, I’d be actually not sure about what to advocate for future debates. In response to the FiveThirtyEight/Washington Submit/Ipsos ballot, Trump did lose potential help amongst Republican debate watchers — earlier than the controversy, 66 p.c stated they have been contemplating voting for him, however after it, that quantity was all the way down to 61 p.c. That’s not a giant deal after only one debate, but when he skips all of the debates, it begins so as to add up, proper? (In fact, there’s no assure that he would lose the identical quantity of help after every debate. And we’re solely speaking about debate watchers right here.)

That stated, the danger of exhibiting up and having a foul debate that’s even worse on your numbers is actual.

meredithconroy: There are downsides — his closest rivals maintain gaining steam and viability, and so forth. However I agree that the danger of exhibiting up and having a foul debate is the higher menace, so I’d most likely advise sitting out. And he can maintain doing his personal occasions, just like the Carlson interview, of their place.

nrakich: I feel the wild card is simply, do the opposite candidates assault him roughly if he does present up?

Going into the controversy, I’d have agreed with what you stated earlier, Meredith, that sitting out made it simpler for the others to assault him. However they didn’t. So now I’m questioning if having him on stage would really make them assault him extra. Wherein case, yeah, he ought to sit out.

Monica Potts: Though nothing that appears “unhealthy” ever appears to have a foul impact on Trump, so I don’t know what a foul debate efficiency would do, both. Since he started his first presidential race, any variety of occasions, just like the Entry Hollywood tape, have been predicted to finish his marketing campaign/profession, and so they haven’t. He’s been criminally indicted 4 occasions and he’s nonetheless main within the polls.

meredithconroy: Totally agree with that, Monica. I’d be extra all in favour of how his presence shapes the tone of the controversy, and if that shift in tone carries over into the race, and if it will be in his favor.

nrakich: Besides I don’t suppose that’s true, Monica! Simply because Trump hasn’t misplaced his front-runner standing doesn’t imply that he’s resistant to swings within the polls. There’s really early proof that skipping the controversy did materially harm him. Three pollsters — Emerson Faculty, Morning Seek the advice of and InsiderAdvantage — performed nationwide major polls each the week earlier than the controversy and the week after, and Trump’s help declined by a median of 4 proportion factors.

maya: So even when candidates do assault him, do now we have purpose to suppose that may have a cloth impact on how Republicans view him?

meredithconroy: So, I feel perceptions of Trump are fairly set at this level, and even when he does botch the controversy, the imagined view of his persona will nonetheless prevail. However I do surprise if there’s a chunk of major voters who see him as inevitable however peel off from him in the event that they see a viable various. In all probability not sufficient, although. And possibly too many choices for that to be coordinated (like 2016).

Monica Potts: Proper, Meredith, I feel that’s what it will take. In concept the debates might assist somebody develop into the candidate all of the Trump-doubters coalesce round, however they nonetheless have an enormous hole to make up, even when Trump does lose some floor from skipping debates.

nrakich: In response to a New York Occasions evaluation of its ballot with Siena Faculty, 37 p.c of Republican major voters are rock-solid Trump supporters whereas one other 37 p.c are persuadable. (The remaining 25 p.c aren’t open to Trump.) That means that, whereas he does have a flooring of help, he additionally has so much to lose. I don’t suppose Trump would need to find yourself in a major the place he has 37 p.c help nationally and somebody like DeSantis or Ramaswamy has, say, 30 p.c. That’s harmful territory for him. And it’s not loopy to suppose that might occur if Trump retains skipping debates and DeSantis or Ramaswamy maintain profitable them.

I don’t know. I assume he can maintain skipping debates till he falls under a sure threshold of help. However it’s dangerous both approach.

maya: As a result of this can be a Slack chat and we’re not certain by the conventional guidelines, I’m going to ask everybody to take a stab at that quantity! At what level ought to Trump begin exhibiting up for debates? 

nrakich: Beneath 40 p.c nationally, possibly?

Provided that he was at 54 p.c in our common only a few days earlier than the August debate (and is now all the way down to 50 p.c), that might signify a big and sustained slide. 

meredithconroy: Sure, I feel Nathaniel is true with 40 p.c.

nrakich: The place the opposite candidates are issues too. It’s very totally different if he’s at 39 p.c and DeSantis is at 30 p.c than if he’s at 39 p.c and everybody else is in single digits.

Monica Potts: If I have been a Republican major voter, I’d say he ought to have proven up for the primary debate to reply questions and take part within the democratic course of! But when the angle is from his marketing campaign, to maintain from shedding floor, then Nathaniel and Meredith appear proper.

nrakich: Oh, sure, to be crystal clear: From the angle of getting a strong debate and protecting voters as knowledgeable as doable, Trump ought to completely be attending all the debates.

maya: But when we’re speaking when it comes to profitable … effectively, the calculus is a bit totally different.

We’ll control the September debate stage, and on Trump’s nationwide common, although!