Six years after the Balakot airstrike on 26 February 2019, which noticed India launch precision strikes on Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terror camps in Pakistan, US President Donald Trump has made a transfer that’s elevating eyebrows throughout South Asia.
In a controversial determination, his administration has permitted a $397 million bundle to assist Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jet fleet—a growth that rekindles considerations in New Delhi over potential misuse in opposition to India. At the same time as Washington guarantees stringent oversight, skeptics recall how Pakistan deployed these similar F-16s in opposition to India within the aftermath of Balakot, in violation of US end-use agreements.
However that’s not the one twist. In what looks as if a fastidiously calculated balancing act, Trump has prolonged an unprecedented olive department to India: a proposal to amass the superior F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jet. The transfer alerts a dramatic recalibration of US army technique in South Asia, doubtlessly altering the area’s energy dynamics.
The international assist freeze — and the Pakistan exception
Upon returning to the White Home, Trump wasted no time in imposing a sweeping 90-day freeze on all international assist, pledging to place “America First” and conduct a complete evaluate of US help programmes. But, inside weeks, labeled paperwork obtained by Reuters revealed that his administration had quietly permitted 243 exceptions to this freeze—one in all them being the $397 million F-16 bundle for Pakistan.
This transfer straight contradicts Trump’s earlier stance. Again in 2018, he had slashed army assist to Pakistan, accusing it of harbouring terrorists and famously declaring on X (previously Twitter): “The US has foolishly given Pakistan greater than 33 billion {dollars} in assist during the last 15 years, they usually have given us nothing however lies & deceit.”
Now, nevertheless, the Trump administration justifies this bundle beneath the banner of counterterrorism (CT) and counterinsurgency (COIN) operations. The irony is tough to overlook: the identical F-16s being serviced beneath this programme have been used in opposition to India within the 2019 skirmish, violating US end-use phrases.
The Balakot airstrike and Pakistan’s F-16 controversy
The Indo-Pakistan aerial battle on 27 February 2019 stays a sore level. Following India’s airstrike on JeM camps in Balakot, Pakistan retaliated by deploying F-16s in a dogfight with the Indian Air Drive (IAF).
The IAF claimed to have shot down a Pakistani F-16, a cost Islamabad denied.
Wreckage evaluation urged AMRAAM (Superior Medium-Vary Air-to-Air Missile) particles, a weapon unique to F-16s, confirming their involvement.
In response, the US State Division issued a quiet diplomatic reprimand, however no punitive motion was taken.
Leaked diplomatic cables revealed that in August 2019, Undersecretary of State Andrea Thompson wrote to Pakistan’s Air Chief, warning that shifting F-16s to unauthorised bases was “regarding and inconsistent” with US agreements. Regardless of this, Pakistan continued to accommodate these jets exterior designated areas, elevating severe questions concerning the effectiveness of Washington’s monitoring mechanisms.
India’s outrage and Trump’s F-35 proposal
The federal government has but to formally react, however the diplomatic corridors in New Delhi are abuzz. Critics argue that Washington’s reassurances of tight oversight on Pakistan’s F-16s ring hole, given previous failures.
To mitigate Indian considerations, Trump has prolonged a game-changing supply—permitting India entry to the fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter. The proposal, if accepted, would signify a historic shift in US-India defence relations, as Washington has beforehand barred India from buying the F-35 resulting from its buy of Russia’s S-400 missile defence system, which triggered US CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries By way of Sanctions Act) sanctions.
The F-35 dilemma: Strategic shift or a poisoned chalice?
Whereas an F-35 acquisition would considerably improve India’s air fight capabilities, it comes with essential challenges:
1. Excessive prices
- Every F-35A prices round $100 million, with operational bills far exceeding India’s current fighter fleet.
- Lifetime upkeep prices are projected to be over $1.5 trillion.
2. Tech restrictions
- Not like Russia’s Su-57E, which comes with full know-how switch rights, the US is unlikely to grant India any autonomy over F-35 modifications.
- US end-use clauses may prohibit India’s means to deploy the plane in sure situations.
3. Indigenous programmes at stake
- India’s Superior Medium Fight Plane (AMCA) challenge is in growth and anticipated to roll out within the mid-2030s.
- Accepting the F-35 may shift focus away from India’s homegrown fighter programmes.
How the US plans to watch Pakistan’s F-16s
The Trump administration insists that the $397 million bundle won’t improve Pakistan’s fight capabilities however merely present upkeep and sustainment assist. Key monitoring mechanisms embrace:
- Technical safety group (TST):
US Air Drive personnel stationed in Pakistan will conduct real-time monitoring of F-16 actions. - Base restrictions: Pakistan should home its F-16 fleet individually from Chinese language-designed JF-17s.
- Operational approvals: Any deployment exterior Pakistan or joint workouts requires US consent.
- Missile management: Superior AMRAAM missiles shall be saved in designated high-security vaults.
- Stationing limits: F-16s can solely be based mostly at Shahbaz Airbase (Jacobabad) and Mushaf Airbase (Sargodha).
Regardless of these measures, safety analysts stay extremely sceptical. “Pakistan has discovered methods to avoid US restrictions earlier than. Why would this time be any completely different?” one senior Indian intelligence official remarked.
Balancing Act: India, Pakistan, and China in Trump’s South Asia technique
By funding Pakistan’s F-16 fleet whereas concurrently providing India the F-35, Trump is taking part in a high-stakes recreation in South Asia. Whereas the F-35 supply is engaging, accepting it may imply:
- A shift away from Russia, India’s main defence provider.
- Tighter US affect over India’s army decisions.
A brand new balancing act in opposition to China
China has steadily expanded its stealth fighter fleet with the J-20 and J-35, cementing its air superiority ambitions. Nonetheless, Beijing hasn’t simply been upgrading its personal arsenal—it has additionally been arming Pakistan, supplying the nation with superior fighter jets over the previous decade.
- Within the final 5 to 10 years, China has transferred a number of JF-17 Thunder variants, a fighter collectively developed with Pakistan, considerably bolstering Islamabad’s air capabilities.
- Extra just lately, studies point out that Beijing is making ready to produce J-10C fighter jets, that includes AESA radar and PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles, additional shifting the steadiness within the area.
New Delhi now faces a vital determination: embrace the F-35 and deepen US army ties, or keep unbiased and push for indigenous fighter growth.
Trump’s calculated gamble
Trump’s transactional international coverage stays as unpredictable as ever. By throwing each Pakistan and India into the combo, he’s reshaping the regional army steadiness whereas making certain America stays a key participant in South Asian geopolitics.
Because the mud settles, the massive query stays: how a lot can New Delhi belief Donald ‘Maverick’ Trump?
