OPINION — For the reason that starting of the battle in Ukraine, I’ve discovered the acquainted rhetoric supporting Ukraine’s proper to self-defense towards Russian aggression harking back to the discourse that adopted America’s engagement in Afghanistan. From the outset, I apprehensive that Ukraine would possibly expertise the identical trajectory: beneficiant assist early on, adopted by political fatigue and eventual “abandonment.” The sample of improvement of dependency—the place the supported authorities is unable to maintain itself with out steady support—could be deeply damaging and go away a nation weak.
Regrettably, as a substitute of using America’s affect to result in an early diplomatic decision to the Ukraine battle, President Joe Biden escalated army assist, contributing to a protracted and more and more complicated battle. Ukraine has since change into closely reliant on U.S. monetary support, weapons, and intelligence. But this assist has usually appeared unstable, sometimes threatened by inside U.S. politics. Notably, President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled a willingness to halt assist, a place that intensified following political tensions between his administration and President Volodymyr Zelensky. This rising reliance locations Kyiv in a weak place—strikingly much like the scenario Kabul confronted through the U.S.-Taliban negotiations below President Trump’s first time period. The U.S. held huge leverage in each conflicts and thus bore a major accountability for his or her outcomes. As somebody who was concerned within the Afghanistan peace course of and follows Ukraine peace efforts carefully, I see a troubling resemblance between Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad’s dealings with the Taliban, and the way in which American politics are actually shaping Ukraine’s destiny.
President Trump has expressed robust curiosity in resolving the battle in Ukraine and has solid himself as a “President of Peace.” Because the chief of essentially the most highly effective nation on the earth, he does possess the power to affect the battle’s trajectory. Nevertheless, the essential query stays: what sort of peace is being pursued? Will it mirror the result in Afghanistan, the place the U.S. successfully handed over energy to the very group accountable for the 9/11 assaults, sidelining its allies and undermining their legitimacy? The U.S. should proceed with authority—not one other “Doha-style” deal which might ship harmful indicators globally, about America’s reliability as a peace maker, negotiator and at last associate.
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Parallels in Negotiation Dynamics:
There are a number of notable parallels between the U.S. strategy to the Afghanistan peace course of and its present involvement within the Ukraine battle. Whereas the contexts differ, the patterns in negotiation ways, therapy of allies, and use of leverage reveal placing similarities. These shared dynamics supply essential classes—classes that, if ignored, may result in repeated strategic failures. Three key parallels stand out:
1. Russia’s Insistence with the U.S.-Led Talks:
President Putin’s refusal to interact instantly with President Zelensky in Istanbul, insisting as a substitute on first reaching an understanding with the U.S., mirrors the Taliban’s place through the Doha talks. The Taliban demanded negotiations solely with america earlier than any engagement with the Afghan authorities. This tactic successfully marginalized the nationwide authorities, granting the Taliban better legitimacy. In Ukraine’s case, ought to Russia safe a cope with Washington that renders the U.S. impartial or much less engaged, it might doubtless tilt the battlefield dynamics in Moscow’s favor. We witnessed the same shift in Afghanistan, the place repeated Afghan objections to their exclusion had been dismissed as obstructionist to the peace talks. I recall a number of conferences on the presidential palace in Kabul, the place Ambassador Khalilzad emphasised that “the U.S. doesn’t want anybody’s permission to barter with the Taliban or to withdraw its troops.” This narrative grew to become a rhetorical weapon to close down legitimate issues about an orderly and inclusive peace course of.
2. Public Discrediting of Allies:
One other shared sample is the notion of “undermining allies.” In Afghanistan, Ambassador Khalilzad publicly criticized the Afghan authorities—particularly President Ashraf Ghani—for being an impediment to peace, somewhat than acknowledging reliable issues. Ghani’s polarizing management model made him a straightforward goal, permitting Khalilzad’s narrative to achieve traction amongst Afghan elites and the general public. In Ukraine, the tone of public discourse from U.S. officers, together with the President, has at instances appeared dismissive or essential of the Ukrainian authorities. This public framing could be damaging. It echoes the strain confronted by the Afghan authorities to make main concessions—equivalent to the discharge of 5,000 Taliban prisoners—regardless of warnings from Afghan management. In each circumstances, U.S. rhetoric has eroded the morale of associate forces and given adversaries the higher hand in psychological warfare. In Afghanistan, this contributed on to the collapse of state constructions and army cohesion. Language issues. Classes from Afghanistan ought to inform a extra cautious, respectful U.S. posture in Ukraine.
3. Conditioning Assist and Misusing Leverage:
Threats to droop assist for Ukraine, don’t advance peace. They embolden adversaries and sow uncertainty. American leverage must be used to finish violence, not threat enabling it. Any withdrawal of support must be tied to the profitable cessation of hostilities and institution of a viable simply peace. In any other case, efforts at diplomacy threat failing, and President Trump’s envisioned “peace legacy” might as a substitute be remembered as a geopolitical failure.
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Suggestions:
Based mostly on the teachings discovered from Afghanistan, the next advice is essential for avoiding related pitfalls in Ukraine:
Firstly, the U.S. should keep away from the essential mistake made through the Afghanistan peace course of—negotiating instantly with adversaries whereas sidelining reliable nationwide governments. Within the case of Afghanistan, excluding the Afghan authorities and the Afghan folks from early phases of the U.S.-Taliban talks severely weakened its authority, emboldened the Taliban, and in the end led to the collapse of the Afghan state. This strategy not solely demoralized U.S. allies but in addition delegitimized them within the eyes of their very own folks and the worldwide neighborhood. In Ukraine, america should undertake a special course. Any peace initiative should place the Ukrainian authorities and the folks of Ukraine on the middle of negotiations—not as a passive recipient of choices made elsewhere, however as an lively, equal stakeholder. Peace achieved with out the consent and management of either side of the battle—the Ukrainian folks and its adversaries—will likely be fragile, not sustainable, and short-lived.
Secondly, public messaging should replicate respect and unity. Criticizing allies in public, whereas signaling tolerance or engagement with aggressors behind closed doorways, undermines belief, morale, and credibility. Strategic ambiguity could be exploited by adversaries to sow discord, because it was by the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Ukraine deserves a peace course of that’s inclusive, dignified, and respectful of its sovereignty. The world can not afford a repeat of the Kabul state of affairs—the place allies had been sidelined, and adversaries gaining upper-hand. The U.S. management, as all the time, should be principled, constant, and anchored in classes discovered from previous missteps. If managed properly, the peace course of in Ukraine may certainly mark a transformative legacy for American diplomacy, not solely because the associate to depend on however as a negotiator with making the suitable deal.
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