Now that we’re on the opposite aspect of Labor Day and summer season is subsiding, that is — as custom goes — when give attention to political campaigns actually begins to warmth up. The off-year elections this November will get some consideration, however the primary attraction remains to be the 2024 Republican presidential major.

On this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we ask a query we are going to undoubtedly return to within the 4 months till the Iowa caucuses: Is Donald Trump’s nomination inevitable? And if not inevitable, how can we place the probability he wins the GOP major in historic context?

We even have partial outcomes from two particular major elections and we debate “good or dangerous use of polling” for a basic and controversial matter: inner polls.