This might show a defining week for the struggle in Ukraine, with two units of swiftly organized talks going down in Paris and Riyadh.

European leaders are assembly in France as they scramble for a response to Donald Trump’s plan to open negotiations with Vladimir Putin for an finish to the battle.

On Tuesday Russia’s overseas minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are resulting from meet within the Saudi capital.

Ukraine shouldn’t be attending both set of talks.

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and at present controls greater than a fifth of its territory, primarily within the south and east.

BBC correspondents analyse what key powers hope to realize from two days of intense diplomacy.

The UK

By Harry Farley, Political Correspondent in London

Sir Keir Starmer is hoping to be a bridge between European leaders and Trump’s White Home berating them about their defence spending.

Starmer’s provide to place UK troops on the bottom in Ukraine is a part of that function he desires to play.

The federal government used to say the phrases of any peace deal was as much as Ukraine. That has shifted with the brand new US administration signalling {that a} return to 2014 borders was “unrealistic”.

As a substitute Sir Keir can be hoping extra European nations in Paris be part of him in providing their forces to safe a deal – and forestall Russia invading once more.

However whereas the prime minister is in Paris, in Westminster the controversy goes on about how a lot the nation ought to spend on defence.

Labour has promised to “set out a path” to extend defence spending from 2.3% of GDP now to 2.5%. Defence sources say that may be a major rise.

However there isn’t any date for when that may occur – and plenty of argue it’s now pressing.

Germany

By Damien McGuinness, Germany correspondent in Berlin

It’s a signal of how rattled German leaders are by Trump’s strategy to Ukraine that simply days earlier than a nationwide election Chancellor Olaf Scholz can also be in Paris.

All mainstream events have condemned American ideas {that a} peace deal be brokered with out Ukraine or the EU. Far-right and populist-left politicians welcome talks with Putin and wish to cease arming Kyiv. However they won’t get into energy.

So, regardless of the subsequent German authorities seems like, Berlin’s help for Ukraine will stay robust. That’s as a result of Berlin’s political elite recognises {that a} dangerous deal – one which undermines Ukrainian sovereignty – can be disastrous for Germany.

However with Germany’s war-torn twentieth century in thoughts, voters listed here are cautious of militarisation.

Over the previous three years the nation has efficiently pivoted away from Russian vitality and massively upped defence spending. However this has hit the German economic system arduous and the next funds rows sparked the collapse of the German authorities.

So politicians try to keep away from public discussions of adverse points, like increased Nato spending targets or German peacekeeping troops in Ukraine — not less than till after the election.

Poland

By Sarah Rainsford, Jap Europe correspondent in Warsaw

Poland has been a key supporter of Ukraine because the begin of Russia’s full-scale invasion and it’s the key logistics hub for army and humanitarian help coming into the nation.

It is usually a loud voice arguing that Russia can’t be allowed to win the struggle it launched – as a result of the entire of Europe’s safety is at stake. So there may be consternation that the US seems like it’s conceding to Moscow’s key calls for, even earlier than talks start, when Poland very clearly sees Russia because the aggressor and as harmful.

Russia is why Poland spends large by itself army – as much as virtually 5% of GDP now – and agrees with the US that the remainder of Europe ought to do the identical.

On his option to the talks in Paris, Poland Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on X: “If we, Europeans, fail to spend large on defence now, we can be compelled to spend 10 instances extra if we do not stop a wider struggle.”

On the query of whether or not to ship Polish troops to Ukraine – to assist implement any eventual ceasefire – authorities officers have been cautious, ruling it out for now.

The Nordic and Baltic nations

By Nick Beake, Europe Correspondent in Copenhagen

Denmark would be the solely Nordic nation at Monday’s assembly. However European diplomats say it can even be representing the pursuits of its Baltic neighbours to the east – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – all of whom border Russia and really feel significantly susceptible to any future Putin assault.

The shockwaves generated by the second Trump time period have already been reverberating round Denmark.

Trump’s renewed want to take over Greenland – an autonomous Danish dependent territory – propelled Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen on a whistle-stop tour of European allies final month to shore up help.

On Monday in Paris, Frederiksen finds herself as soon as once more in a hastily-convened assembly to reply to Trump’s reshaping of the transatlantic safety panorama.

Frederiksen has not but adopted in Starmer’s footsteps of pledging peacekeeping boots on the bottom in Ukraine.

Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen has been quoted by Danish media as saying he’s not ruling it out – however that it’s too early to speak about.

France

By Andrew Harding, Paris correspondent

French President Emmanuel Macron referred to as Monday’s casual assembly – not a “summit,” his officers insisted – to assist Europe coordinate a response each to Washington’s more and more unsympathetic posture in the direction of the continent, and to no matter emerges from the White Home’s fast-paced negotiations with the Kremlin.

“The Europeans, as we converse, will not be coordinated, however that could be the entire level of (this) summit in Paris, and that’s the starting of coordination… Are we prepared? The reply isn’t any. Can we prepare? The reply is sure,” mentioned Francois Heisbourg, a veteran French army skilled, commenting on the necessity for Europe to work collectively to organize a potential peacekeeping drive for Ukraine.

“There’s a wind of unity blowing throughout Europe akin to has not been seen since Covid,” mentioned Jean-Noël Barrot, France’s most senior diplomat.

The temper in France – a nation at all times cautious of American geopolitical manoeuvring – is especially edgy proper now, with newspaper headlines warning of a brand new “Trump-Putin axis” that may sideline or “abandon” Europe over the struggle in Ukraine.

“We must be in a Europe-wide state of emergency,” warned the previous Prime Minister Dominique De Villepin at a latest information briefing, accusing an “smug” Trump of making an attempt to “rule the world with out ideas or respect.”

Russia

By Liza Fokht, BBC Russian in Paris

Because the summer season, Putin has acknowledged that his foremost situations for beginning negotiations to finish the struggle are the popularity of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, the lifting of sanctions on Russia, and denial of Ukraine’s request to affix Nato.

Most European nations categorically reject these calls for. The US has been very cautious in discussing what concessions Russia may need to make, although each the White Home and the Pentagon have mentioned they count on compromises from “either side”.

Moscow’s precedence is clearly the assembly in Saudi Arabia. Russian International Minister Sergey Lavrov has mentioned he would “initially prefer to pay attention” to the American proposals on ending the battle in Ukraine.

As for Europe, Moscow sees no level in inviting it to the negotiating desk.

It’s no secret that for a few years Putin has sought dialogue particularly with the US – a rustic he each blames for beginning the struggle in Ukraine and considers the one energy equal to Russia.

Moscow could be aware of Starmer’s statements about being able to ship peacekeepers to the Ukraine – for the primary time in per week, the dialogue is about potential Russian, relatively than Ukrainian, concessions.

However whether or not Russia is prepared for any compromises stays an open query.

The US

By Bernd Debusmann Jr reporting from Mar-a-Lago, Florida

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Particular Envoy to the Center East Steve Witkoff would be the public face of the US group negotiating in Riyadh – however maybe the principle voice on the desk is greater than 7,400 miles (11,900km) away, in Palm Seaside, Florida.

Regardless of Trump’s public engagements in latest days, it’s clear that the negotiations with Russia over the destiny of Ukraine have been his focus behind the scenes.

On Sunday, Trump advised reporters he had been saved abreast of the newest developments and the talks are “shifting alongside”.

His short-term objective is to cease the combating in Ukraine. Long run, he seems to need much less American involvement, provided that the US has despatched tens of billions of {dollars}’ value of weapons to Kyiv.

Trump has additionally pushed for entry to uncommon minerals in Ukraine in return for help, and even as compensation for the help the US has already offered.

However he has not but mentioned what a post-war Ukraine would appear like, setting off alarm bells in Europe.

He additionally notably mentioned that he expects Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky to be part of the “dialog”, however not the talks in Riyadh. Rubio has mentioned the talks in Saudi Arabia are solely the beginning of an extended course of that may “clearly” embody Europe and Ukraine.

These remarks are seemingly to supply little consolation for US allies who’ve been listening to Trump’s remarks over the past a number of days.

In response to a BBC query on Wednesday, Trump mentioned he believes he’s inclined to agree with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s evaluation {that a} return to pre-2014 borders is unrealistic for Ukraine, though he expects Ukraine would possibly get “some” of that land again.

To date, it seems that answer shouldn’t be one that’s palatable for Zelensky and the remainder of Ukraine’s management.

By Mariana Matveichuk, BBC Ukraine in Kyiv

The Ukrainian individuals really feel their future is as unsure because it was again in February 2022.

Ukrainians need peace – in order to not get up to the sounds of sirens and never lose family members on the battlefield and in frontline cities.

Russia occupies virtually 25% of Ukraine’s territory. Ukraine’s defence has value tens of 1000’s of lives of its residents.

The nation has previously insisted that any peace deal embody the total withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory. That features not solely areas Russia has seized in its full-scale offensive, but additionally the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which Russia annexed after 2014, and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, the place Russia has backed separatists in combating, additionally after 2014.

Ukrainians are terrified of a peace settlement just like the one in 2014 or 2015 – heavy combating was stopped, however crossfire on the border continued to convey losses.

With no safety ensures, it might additionally imply a chance of a brand new wave of struggle in a decade or so.

“Ukraine regards any talks about Ukraine with out Ukraine as such that haven’t any end result, and we can’t recognise… agreements about us with out us,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned concerning the US-Russia assembly.

No matter kind any peace talks take, Ukrainians need company over their very own future.

Many see earlier peace preparations with Russia as having merely paved the best way for its full-scale invasion. So the Ukrainian concern is that any deal agreed over its head may result in a 3rd spherical of struggle.